Shared ground
Daniel explains Jerusalem’s collapse as the outworking of what God had already said would happen (v.12). The disaster is not treated as random. It “confirms” earlier warnings and matches what was “written in the law of Moses” (vv.12–13). Daniel also links the crisis to a moral and covenant breakdown: the people did not seek God’s favor by turning from wrongdoing, and they did not gain discernment in God’s truth (v.13).
Daniel goes further and says God “watched over” the calamity and brought it, while still affirming God’s righteousness and the people’s disobedience (v.14). Finally, Daniel appeals to God’s identity as Israel’s deliverer from Egypt, while restating collective guilt (v.15). The exodus memory supplies a basis for hope without denying blame.
Where interpretation differs (only where needed)
Some readers hear Daniel describing God as directly planning and executing Jerusalem’s calamity (v.14), emphasizing divine intention and oversight. Others read the language as stressing that God allowed and “kept watch” so that the threatened consequences truly arrived at the right time, without necessarily detailing how God relates to every human action involved.
A smaller difference concerns “our judges who judged us” (v.12): some take this broadly as Israel’s leaders and officials across generations (including kings and administrators), while others think it points more narrowly to specific governing authorities responsible for the decisions that led to disaster.
Why the disagreement exists
The phrase “watched over the evil” can be heard as either strong direct agency or careful supervision of announced consequences. Also, the text does not specify which Mosaic passages are in view, and it does not define “judges,” leaving scope for broader or narrower identification.
What this passage clearly contributes
This unit contributes a tight explanation of national catastrophe in covenant terms: (1) the calamity fulfills prior divine warnings (spoken and written), (2) the community’s ongoing failure to seek God’s favor through turning and truth-understanding is part of the diagnosis, (3) God remains righteous even while calamity comes, and (4) Israel’s foundational deliverance from Egypt is invoked as a precedent for God’s saving reputation (vv.12–15). It models a way of speaking about judgment that keeps together God’s reliability, human responsibility, and the memory of past rescue (cf. Exodus 20:2).